The December hike bet sits near 70%. Tuesday's CPI gets the next vote.

Good morning, Slaters!

Last week settled a lot of bets. This week tests the prices left standing.

The Iran ceasefire ladder is gone. All six contracts resolved "No" on the Qeshm strike. The Senate went to the favorite. What remains is harder to read: a December hike bet near 70%, two disputed contracts that hinge on facts nobody has published and a court fight over what the venues themselves can list.

The catalysts are concrete. October CPI and a 10-year auction land Tuesday. The 30-year sells Thursday. A federal case over the CFTC's approvals keeps moving. Each one can reprice a contract that sits on a narrow resolution rule.

One habit will help all week. Before reading a price as a forecast, read what it actually pays on.

Six to watch.

Will the Fed hike in December?

Contract: Kalshi, quarter-point Fed hike at the December meeting

Current pricing: Near 70% heading into Friday's jobs report, down from 80 cents midweek

Next catalyst: October CPI, Tuesday, Nov. 10

Resolution condition: A quarter-point increase at the December meeting. The contract names the size, so a hike of any size is not automatically a win. Check the terms before treating "hike" and "quarter-point hike" as the same bet.

What would reprice it: Last week the contract held on activity and price surveys, not oil. It climbed to 80 cents while one-year inflation swaps fell to about 2.1%. A hot core print confirms the survey read and pushes it back toward 80. A tame print, after Brent's slide, hands bond bulls their first hard number.

Market implication: The 10-year closed Thursday at 4.84%. A hot CPI on the same day as a $42 billion 10-year auction is the mix that drives yields back toward 4.9%. That is where Thursday's cushion for stocks starts to thin.

Will the disputed Iran contracts flip?

Contract: Polymarket ceasefire contracts for Oct. 31 and Nov. 2

Current pricing: Near 88 and 78.5 cents after a dispute opened

Next catalyst: Any reporting that dates or locates the earlier secret strikes the Wall Street Journal described. No date is set.

Resolution condition: Each pays "Yes" only if the truce held through its deadline. A U.S. strike on Iranian land before then makes it a "No."

Popular read versus the rules: Many traders treat a contract that expired near 99 cents as finished. These two are not. The dispute turns on what happened before the deadline, not on what was known at expiry.

What would reprice it: A credible report placing a strike before Nov. 2 should push that contract toward zero. A strike before Oct. 31 would take both with it. Silence favors the current lean.

Market implication: A confirmed run of earlier strikes would support a third state oil has barely priced: a low-grade conflict that never fully stopped. That matters for a crude market that has spent the week pricing either a deal or a war.

When does the Senate trade actually pay?

Contract: Democratic control of the Senate, Kalshi and Polymarket

Current pricing: 76 cents on Kalshi and 76.5 on Polymarket on Election Day morning. Democrats won both chambers, according to the AP, and some races are still being counted.

Next catalyst: Final calls in the races still being counted

Resolution condition: Kalshi can settle early on a media consensus. Polymarket resolves on seats won.

Popular read versus the rules: "The AP called it, so it's paid." That holds closer to Kalshi's rule than Polymarket's. On Polymarket the trigger is seats won, and a close count could tie up money for weeks. Same outcome, different clocks.

Market implication: Bonds read the sweep as restraint. The new Congress takes over in January, and the policy questions start now. AI oversight hearings are one. Crypto's Clarity Act is another, and TD Cowen said before the vote that it would not expect passage within two years under a Democratic Congress.

Is the war premium coming back?

Contract: None live in our coverage. With the ceasefire ladder settled, the question now trades in crude.

Current pricing: Brent settled at $98.29 on Thursday and WTI at $90.52.

Next catalyst: A formal Iranian counterproposal through Qatar, more tanker incidents or a new strike report. None is scheduled. OPEC+ meets Nov. 29.

Resolution condition: Without a contract, the cleanest line is Brent at $100.

Popular read versus the rules: A ceasefire contract resolving "No" sounds like "the war is back." It isn't. Those contracts paid on a single strike that U.S. officials called limited and defensive. Two days later, oil seemed to be pricing Washington, not the Strait, and fell 8.7%.

What would reprice it: A new strike headline. Capital Economics says renewed U.S. strikes could push Brent above $120. Brent holding below $100 into OPEC+ with no new strike says the premium is draining.

Market implication: The Bank of England's forecasts assumed $108 Brent. Airlines rallied on the drop and refiners fell. Both trades reverse first if the premium returns.

Will Treasury supply test the bond rally?

Contract: No event contract. The measurable outcomes are auction yields.

Current pricing: The 10-year closed Thursday at 4.84%. The last 30-year auction cleared at 5.618% on Oct. 8.

Next catalysts: $58 billion of 3-year notes Monday, $42 billion of 10-year notes Tuesday and $25 billion of 30-year bonds Thursday

Resolution condition: Each auction clears at a yield set by demand. This is the first test since Treasury dropped "at least" from its promise to keep coupon sizes steady.

What would reprice it: Strong demand into falling yields confirms the haven bid. Weak demand, especially alongside a hot CPI on Tuesday, pushes yields up and would support the December hike contract.

Market implication: Bonds caught Thursday's stock fall. If they stop, the 4.36% drop in the S&P 500 loses its shock absorber.

Will the venues keep their own rule books?

Contract: Single-stock perpetual futures on Kalshi and Coinbase (COIN), approved by the CFTC

Current status: Still trading. A federal judge let them continue but found the challengers likely to win their argument that the CFTC overstepped.

Next catalyst: The court's next step after the CFTC's filing, which was due Friday. Arkansas also sued Kalshi on Wednesday under its consumer-protection law.

Resolution condition: The court decides whether these contracts are security-based swaps that only the SEC can regulate, as the group including Cboe (CBOE) and Citadel Securities argues.

Popular read versus the rules: "Trading continues" sounds like a win for the venues. The judge's view of the merits points the other way. The case also covers stock-linked contracts, not sports.

Market implication: DraftKings (DKNG) just cut its 2026 profit guide, mainly to put $650 million to $700 million into prediction markets. Robinhood (HOOD) already earns more from prediction markets than from crypto. Rulings that back federal oversight make those bets look early. Rulings for the challengers or the states make them expensive.

That's it for this week's look ahead. CPI and the 10-year on Tuesday, the long bond Thursday, and a court deciding what counts as a contract. Stay close to the feed.

Today's reply prompt: Which price is most wrong going into the week: the December hike near 70%, Brent below $100 or the 88 cents on a contract that already expired?