Good morning, Slaters!
Three companies reported earnings after Tuesday's close. All three beat Wall Street estimates. Two of them fell.
SpaceX (SPCX) posted $7.8 billion in revenue, smashing the $6.9 billion consensus. The stock dropped 5% after hours. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) delivered $11.5 billion in revenue, up 50%, and fell 8%. Caterpillar (CAT) posted a 32% earnings surprise with record revenue and record backlog. It surged 11%.
The difference? Spending. SpaceX disclosed $18.4 billion in capital expenditure in a single quarter. AMD's guidance was solid but not electric. CAT blew past every estimate and raised its outlook.
This market is no longer sorting companies by whether they beat. It is sorting them by how much cash they are burning to beat. That is the filter that matters this morning.
SpaceX delivered the revenue. Wall Street wanted the margin.
SpaceX's first-ever public earnings report told two stories at once.
Revenue: $7.8 billion, up 92%, beating consensus by $900 million. Loss per share: negative nine cents versus the negative 26 cents expected. All three segments beat. Starlink revenue hit $4.29 billion. AI revenue surged 247% to $2.56 billion. CFO Bret Johnsen said the company is on pace to reach $100 billion in annualized recurring revenue by year-end.
So why did the stock fall? SpaceX spent $18.4 billion in Q2, with $15.8 billion on AI alone. That annualizes to $73.5 billion, well above the $48.7 billion analysts expected. After weeks of capex scrutiny at Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, SpaceX posted the most aggressive AI spending number of the entire earnings season.
Tomorrow compounds it. The first major lockup tranche releases 911.5 million shares, exceeding the current float. SPCX has fallen 45% from its June peak.
The market signal?
If AI infrastructure pays off in two to three years, SPCX near its IPO price is the entry point investors will revisit. If capex discipline matters now, the lockup tomorrow is the stress test.
When the Fed Cuts, These Go First
The rate-cut rally is already taking shape, and our analysts just pinpointed 10 stocks most likely to lead it.
They’ve dug through every chart, sector, and earnings trend to find companies positioned for explosive upside once the Fed eases.
From AI innovators to dividend aristocrats, these are the names attracting billions in early institutional money.
Miss them now, and you’ll be chasing the rally later.
Get the Top 10 Best Stocks to Own in the Second Half of 2026 — free today before the next leg higher begins >>
Records on Tuesday. Uncertainty on Wednesday morning.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,736 on Tuesday, up 1.79%, for another record. The Dow hit 54,085, up 907 points. The Nasdaq gained 2.59%, powered by Palantir Technologies (PLTR) surging 29.5% on its blowout Q2 and a broad chip-stock comeback.
Wednesday futures are mixed. S&P flat, Nasdaq 100 slightly lower as traders digest SpaceX and AMD after-hours drops. Asian markets are broadly positive: Nikkei 225 up 3.1%, Kospi up 4%. Oil dipped after Bessent's Hormuz comments, with Brent around $85.
The market signal?
Shopify (SHOP) reports before the bell this morning. If SHOP delivers and the tape holds, the rally has legs. If SpaceX/AMD spending anxiety spreads, Wednesday becomes the exhale.
Caterpillar's CEO just handed the AI bulls their best data point in weeks
While tech investors were agonising over AI spending, Caterpillar (CAT) quietly posted the quarter that proves the spending is landing in the physical economy.
Record revenue of $20.5 billion, up 24%. Adjusted EPS of $8.17, beating estimates of $6.19 by 32%. Record backlog of $72.1 billion. North America construction revenue surged 50%. CEO Joe Creed told analysts that data centres and critical infrastructure are driving construction spending to new highs.
That sentence is the one that matters. The AI buildout is now a concrete-and-steel story. Data centres need power generators, excavation, cooling systems, and heavy machinery. Caterpillar sells all of it.
The market signal?
When the industrial bellwether posts a 32% earnings surprise on AI-adjacent demand, it confirms tech capex is flowing downstream. CAT is the bridge between "spending is too high" and "spending is creating demand." Both are true simultaneously.
The Closest Thing to a Virtual AI Monopoly Wall Street Is Ignoring
A little-known company is building what may be the closest thing to a virtual monopoly the AI era has ever seen.
Only 3...
Yet it beat Apple, Amazon, and the S&P 500 combined...
While paying out $146,000 in total dividends on a 1,000-share stake.
Kevin O'Leary calls what it controls a "unicorn."
Right now, it's trading at a rare discount.
>>>Whitney Tilson reveals the name, completely free.<<<
This ad is sent on behalf of Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201. If you would like to optout from receiving offers from Stansberry Research please click here.
The Hormuz deal may land within hours
Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC the US is "in talks with the Iranians" and a deal could come "today or tomorrow." Axios reported the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on a 60-day interim agreement with separate shipping lanes and mine-clearing within 30 days.
But the strait is still hot. A cargo ship was hit by an unknown projectile off Oman on Tuesday. The last time officials said a deal was imminent, three weeks ago, Iran resumed attacks within days.
The market signal?
Brent is around $85, well off its April peak near $121. If Bessent's timeline holds, crude drops further and the Fed's Q4 cut window opens. If it collapses again, energy reprices fast. This remains the single most important variable for the second-half inflation outlook.
AMD beat the estimates. The stock wanted more.
AMD delivered a clean quarter. Revenue of $11.5 billion, up 50%. EPS of $1.66 versus the $1.55 consensus. Data center revenue hit $6.7 billion, more than doubling. Q3 guidance came in at $13 billion, roughly 3% above consensus. Solid. Not spectacular. The stock fell 8% after hours.
This is the Zscaler pattern repeating. In a market priced for acceleration, meeting expectations is a miss. Only a genuine upside shock gets rewarded.
The market signal?
AMD's fundamentals are accelerating. The Helios ramp and the Anthropic partnership give it long-term optionality. But at current multiples, the stock needs blowout quarters, not good ones. Watch Q3 execution.
Bezos is selling $4 billion of Amazon the week it hit $3 trillion
Jeff Bezos filed to sell 15 million Amazon shares worth $4.07 billion on Monday, the same day Amazon (AMZN) hit $3 trillion in market cap for the first time. Amazon dipped 2% Tuesday on the filing.
The sale runs through a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plan set up last November. Bezos previously sold $5.7 billion between June and July. He still holds over 900 million shares. The filing is mechanical. The timing is not.
The pattern is broader. Bezos at $3 trillion. Zuckerberg selling Meta consistently. Huang trimming Nvidia (NVDA) at every high. Pre-planned, legal, tiny fractions. But the timing tells you how founders view current prices.
The market signal?
Insider selling at record highs is a diversification signal, not a sell signal. But when multiple mega-cap founders trim simultaneously, it is worth noting. They are not panicking. They are being rational.
WARNING: A Major Market Shift Could Hit Stocks in 2026
If you have any money in the stock market, you may want to pay attention.
New research points to a massive market-moving event that could send hundreds of popular stocks into a sudden free fall.
Holding the wrong stocks when this hits could erase years of gains.
That’s why analysts have now identified a list of stocks investors may want to avoid as this event unfolds.
If you want to see what’s coming — and which stocks could be most at risk —
- Shopify (SHOP) reports Q2 before the bell. Wall Street expects $3.44 billion in revenue and $0.40 EPS. The stock has dropped after three of its last four earnings. If Shopify breaks that pattern, it shifts the narrative for growth names outside mega-cap AI.
- SpaceX's first lockup tranche expires tomorrow, releasing up to 911.5 million shares, more than the current public float. Whether insiders sell heavily or hold will tell you more about SPCX's next six months than any analyst note.
- Nonfarm payrolls land Friday. The June print was just 57,000 jobs, well below the 114,000 forecast. Another soft reading would be the clearest signal yet that the labour market is cooling faster than the Fed expected.
- The market signal across all three?
- Shopify tests growth outside AI. The lockup tests insider conviction. Jobs data tests the economy. Three stress tests in 48 hours.
That's it for today's Slate. Three beats, two drops, one deal that might finally close. Big 48 hours ahead.
Today's reply prompt: SpaceX at $118, down 45% from its June peak, reporting 92% revenue growth. Is this a screaming buy or a value trap?
