The deal that won't stay dead and the IPO that won't wait

Here is a sentence that would have sounded weird six months ago: Israel and Iran exchanged missiles over the weekend — the most serious escalation since the ceasefire two months ago — and S&P futures opened higher anyway.

Iran has since declared an end to its operations. Israel accepted the US request to halt strikes on Iran, though its military said it would continue in Lebanon. Trump posted that peace negotiations were proceeding. The market filed the whole thing under "we've seen this before" and moved on.

That is either remarkable resilience or expensive complacency. This week will start sorting out which.

The SpaceX IPO is already oversubscribed, just one day after its roadshow launched. The target: $135 per share, 556.6 million shares, a $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. The largest IPO in stock market history is not having trouble finding buyers.

The underlying business earns that attention. Starlink generated $11.4 billion in 2025, 61% of total revenue, with 10.3 million subscribers across 155 countries by March 31, 2026. In Q1, Starlink's revenue share rose to 69%. The satellite internet story is not a projection, it is already running in action.

The AI overlay is different. Goldman Sachs projected SpaceX could generate over $474 billion in revenue by 2030, with AI accounting for $322 billion of that. SpaceX's AI revenue in 2025 was $3.2 billion. Goldman is modelling roughly a 100x jump in four years. That is either visionary research or the most expensive sales pitch ever written.

Pricing is Thursday. Listing is Friday.

The market signal? Oversubscription tells you about appetite, not price discovery. The first session of SPCX trading will be more informative than anything the roadshow produces.

In the early hours of Monday, Israel launched strikes on Iranian air defenses being restored after earlier fighting. Iranians reported explosions in Tehran, Isfahan, and Tabriz. Airports were shut down. By mid-morning, Iran declared its operations finished. Trump demanded both sides stop shooting.

The pattern is now established: exchange, de-escalation statement, resume negotiations, repeat. Brent crude climbed over $3 a barrel on Monday morning before pulling back as the ceasefire language returned. The market is still betting on the deal. Each week it doesn't arrive, the gap between priced-in assumptions and reality widens quietly.

The market signal? Where Brent settles today does more work than any press conference. Above $93 means risk is being priced back in. Below $90 means the deal trade is still alive.

The June 16-17 FOMC is Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair. Investors see an 80%-plus probability of no move in June or July. By December, the odds of a rate hike are nearly 70%. Four months ago the question was when rates get cut. Now it's whether they go up.

Warsh inherits a Fed at 3.50–3.75%, an FOMC that produced four dissents at its last meeting, and inflation running well above the 2% target. His press conference, not his vote, is the event. He needs to signal enough hawkishness to be credible on inflation without triggering a bond selloff that ends the equity rally.

The market signal? Watch the dot plot language around the "easing bias." That phrase is what the bond market will trade against, and Warsh knows it.

America was already drowning in $38 trillion of debt, but the recent conflict in the Middle East just accelerated the timeline. 

As oil spikes, a 100-year-old stock market signal that accurately predicted the 2008 and 2020 crashes is flashing a massive "Sell" on dozens of popular U.S. equities. 

If you hold the wrong stocks when this debt crisis hits, it could wipe out years of gains.

Click here to see the 10 popular stocks to dump immediately

11780 US Highway 1, Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33408-3080 Would you like to edit your e-mail notification preferences or unsubscribe from our mailing list? Copyright © 2026 Weiss Ratings. All rights reserved.

Here's a number that doesn't make headlines but lives in every goods price in America: war-risk shipping insurance through the Persian Gulf has risen drastically since February.

It doesn't appear in a CPI print. It doesn't come up at a Fed press conference. But it's embedded in every cargo rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to delivery and direct cost to everything inside the container. That cost feeds into the ISM's prices-paid component, which just printed at its highest level in nearly four years.

This is how geopolitical risk becomes consumer price inflation without anyone in Washington saying so. First, there’s tension, which gets accounted for in shipping premiums, then goods cost, PCE reading factors in, and all this leads to more Fed paralysis. The slowest domino in the sequence, and it's still falling.

The market signal? The Cleveland Fed's Nowcasting tool estimates May PCE inflation jumping another 38 basis points to 4.18%. If Hormuz stays closed through summer, the July PCE reading will confirm what the ISM was already saying in June.

That’s what the media wants you to focus on.

But behind the scenes, it seems President Trump is quietly preparing something far more shocking — that will leave even his most loyal MAGA patriots stunned.

It’s NOT being debated on cable news or on X.

But it could make you enormously rich in 2026. Click here to find out why immediately.

That's it for today's Slate. Big week. Stay close Slaters!